| I've believed for a long time that Google Chrome is an example of disruptive technology. Fourteen months ago, the news (and not only the techie news) was buzzing about Google's foray into the browser wars. At that time, I was a little surprised that Google did not announce a Mac version, but not for long—it looks like Google Chrome for Mac is set to launch next month. And while Google Chrome for Mac is big news, its not the really big news. The really big news is that it looks like Google is going to enter the biggest software war of all—OS Wars. Back in July Google leaked its intention to release a new, open source operating system, Chrome OS, that would initially target small systems such as netbooks. An now, Reuters, TechCrunch, and others are speculating that Chrome OS source code could be revealed this week. By Google's own admissions, the initial version is far from complete. But does that mean it's not a threat to the incredibly well established Windows OS? Hardly. Disruptive technologies generally begin life as vastly inferior alternatives to established, mainstream solutions. But if a disruptive technology can gain traction in a specialty, niche market (e.g., small systems such as netbooks), the vendor can continue to improve the new technology, expanding its competency to other areas. If the new technology's improvement trajectory is steeper than that of the established solutions, it may one day equal, and then surpass the established solutions in their primary market segments. That's disruption. Is Chrome OS ready to knock off Windows. Nope. And a decade ago, digital television was not ready to knock off analog broadcast. But today? Analog broadcast is gone. |