Some early reactions, like this one, to Google's foray into the browser wars (rightly) point out that Chrome is not ready to displace established browsers like Firefox, IE, or Opera. While I agree with this (for the moment), what I see in Chrome is the makings of a disruptive technology. A disruptive technology need not begin its life as a replacement for established solutions. It need only begin its life as a compelling solution for some related need AND have the ability to rapidly improve in other areas. Chrome is exactly this. In the post cited above, blogger David Naylor notes, "[Chrome's] 'Create Application' is awesome and that alone will be the reason I use it..." The key here is that there is a reason David will use it. And there will be reasons for millions of others to use it, too. I will use it because of the nice built in developer tools (and because, as a web developer, I have to support it!) but I expect I will quickly come to appreciate a number of other Chrome features as well (like the most recently visited thumbnails view.) The second part of the disruptive technology equation is the improvement trajectory. Google clearly has the resources--both money and talent--and the mindset to rapidly build on the Chrome foundation. Google will quickly chip away at the advantages of the established browsers such the ability to add plug-ins. Thinking, for example, about the historic rate of improvement in IE and considering the enormous challenges of bringing the huge (and old) IE code base forward, its easy to believe that Chrome will overtake and surpass IE in more and more mainstream areas. Once again, I believe we are seeing a disruptive technology hiding in plain sight. What do you think? |